Evolution or Extinction?

Lionsgate is licensing its film and TV library to help train Runway’s new AI model. The executives involved are speaking positively about this new relationship. But it got me thinking about the reactions I see toward AI from many creatives. While there’s curiosity and excitement from some, there’s also a weird amount of dismissal or hubristic vibes about the potential, impact, inevitability, and value of LLMs and other AI models.

I feel like I’ve seen this movie before – Rock Bands brushed off drum machines, sampling, and synthesizers. Matte Painters, Model Makers, and Stop Motion artists derided digital. Editors eschewed Avids, clinging to their Steenbecks. Pen and paper professionals poo-pooed using word processors and Photoshop. Find linear TV replace with TikTok. NYT > Twitter. Etc.

“All this has happened before, and all this will happen again.” J.M. Barrie (From his novel Peter Pan)

New tools can feel like a threat not just to our livelihoods but to our identity and childhood aspirations. Many of us have built careers, reputations, and connections around how things used to be, and the thought of that being disrupted -- sucks.

Not only do we depend on the current system for income. There’s a status quo bias, a tendency to prefer things as they are because it’s easier. And the sunk cost fallacy, where people don’t want to abandon what they’ve invested so much time, money, and energy into. It's a recipe for resistance, which is awesome if you sell MOBA skins or WOW subs.

In the screen trade, the influencer class is loaded with “X” takes and pull quotes resistant to AI with an intensity that rivals Ron Desantis re climate change — Forging online echo chambers where few legacy creatives are willing to verbalize the inevitability of change or the potential opportunities, as they might be seen as disloyal or not reading the room.

But I think we should remember Sarah Connor’s take on the nature of machines —

"It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop... ever, until you are dead!" (Terminator)

There’s a great doc on Disney Plus about the history of ILM. The section re the mid dev pivot of Jurassic Park from Stop Motion to CG is worth a look if you’re curious. Some creatives refused to learn how to use the new tools, and others rolled up their sleeves and went back to school.

My career choice was inspired by the stop motion stylings of Ray Harryhausen in movies like “Jason and The Argonauts,” so I’m grateful Phil Tippett played hooky from digi class and continues to set the standard for that astonishing art form. My cineaste son’s favorite movie is his recently released analog epic, “Mad God.”

As I attempt to acknowledge, experiment with, and incorporate the tools of AI into my process in a way that doesn’t outsource everything I love about scribbling and require a Wellbutrin refill, I’m inspired by Tippett’s example. It’s not a zero-sum game. There will always be room for analog creativity. How much room? TBD.

Adaptability is one of our species' greatest strengths, yet we often resist or focus on what we’re losing rather than gaining. Maybe “the old ways are the best ways” rhetoric is a necessary step in our process, enabling us to stave off abject fear and absorb the inevitable.

AI is an existential threat driven by brilliant folks with a "build fast and break stuff" mantra. I'm shocked by the number of folks in my world who have never seen what these things are capable of. The Terminator's knocking, and we're all Sarah Connor. Eventually, those two figured out how to work together -- but there was a lot of mayhem, chaos, and catastrophe before that happened.

I wish more creator voices at the highest levels were cognizant of what AI and LLMs are capable of right now, today, so they could better anticipate tomorrow’s tidal wave impact.

If you’re curious and have a growth mindset, log into your browser and play around with the free versions of these tools. Either we engage, adjust, and adapt - or risk, not extinction but irrelevance.

"The future's not set. There's no fate but what we make for ourselves."
John Connor (Terminator 2)

Take a look at some other quotes that haven’t dated well —

“The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.” Sir William Preece (Chief Engineer of the British Post Office, 1876)

“The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty—a fad.” President of the Michigan Savings Bank (1903)

There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olsen, Founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, on personal computers (1977)

“There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.” Steve Ballmer, former Microsoft CEO, on the iPhone (2007)

“Neither RedBox nor Netflix are even on the radar screen in terms of competition.” Jim Keyes, CEO of Blockbuster, on Netflix (2008)

“We do not see the e-book platform as a significant threat to physical book sales in the near future.” James Willcox (CEO of Barnes & Noble, 2010)

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