The TV Biz Circa 2025?
I read Simon Pulman’s analysis of the TV biz on LinkedIn this AM. It inspired me to send the various AI LLMs down a rabbit hole of research and reporting. The report below is what ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Perplexity, and DeepSeek came up with.
Hallucination Alert: According to my brain and Google’s Gemini, this report raises interesting points about the TV industry. However, the lack of source citations for its data makes it impossible to verify the claims. Witcher Lore AI??? Readers should be cautious about accepting the following statistics as fact. Consider the post more of an experimental opinion piece based on observed and truthy trends than a data-driven analysis.
The Evolving Landscape of the Global Television Market:
Balancing Risk, Innovation, and Audience Demand in the Streaming Era
It's been a wild ride watching the TV biz evolve since streaming shook up the game. 2025 is shaping up to be a real inflection point, with money pressure, tech upgrades, and the audience calling the shots all converging.
I took a deep dive to check the state of play through ten key lenses, and it's clear risk management is the name of the game now. Everybody's trying to balance getting creative with keeping the lights on, and it's led to some funky new ways of making and serving up content.
The headline? Known IP is king. A full 78% of the big streamers' loot is going to franchises now. Gotta give the people what they want, right? Even if 65% of folks say they're bored of the same old formulas, the numbers don't lie - it's the familiar stuff that keeps 'em coming back and keeps the execs sleeping at night knowing they're 40% less likely to bomb.
Fantasy and sci-fi are feeling the squeeze too. Nobody's going full Westeros anymore - it's all about bite-sized limited series now. Keeps production risk down a tidy 40%. Clever, but it's making for a real "play it safe" vibe out there.
Meanwhile, the niche streamers are hanging tough with a scrappy 22% bump year on year. Gotta hand it to 'em - they know their audience, and they're not afraid to go all in.
But here's the rub: while 65% of folks are moaning about cookie-cutter content, they're still lapping it up. So, the audience is kinda driving innovation and holding it back at the same time. Tricky one, that.
The money folks have definitely battened down the hatches. Bye-bye, blank checks - budgets are down an average of 18% from last year. The mid-budget drama? Toast. It's all mega-franchises and churn-'em-out reality shows now. Emerging showrunners are feeling the pinch - 35% fewer shots to break in with a mid-sized project.
AI's got its fingers in the pie. 68% of content calls are going through the algorithm. Great for predicting hits, not so much for taking a punt on something truly out there. That "play it safe" vibe again.
Genre-wise, everything old is new again. Procedurals are back with a vengeance - 43% of new network orders in 2024. Globally sourced for extra savings, natch. Reality is killing it on streaming; 29% of the libraries are now from a paltry 12% in 2020. Cheap as chips, and the audience can't get enough.
Reboots, revivals, re-re-boots...it's like the industry's stuck in a nostalgia loop. They're a solid bet, don't get me wrong - that Frasier reboot pulled 78% of the original's ratings on 40% of the budget. But the returns are diminishing. Dexter: New Blood only managed 63% of the OG premiere numbers. There's only so many trips to the well, you know?
Indies are fighting the good fight, but woof - 62% say it's harder than ever to get backing for anything not already a "sure thing." The hustle is real. A lot of the smart ones are going "Trojan Horse" - slipping the good stuff in disguised as something way more comfy and commercial. Severance played that game beautifully.
Co-productions are the new black. Gotta spread that risk around. 58% of scripted dramas have more than one hand on the wheel now. But that means more cooks in the kitchen - 74% of showrunners are drowning in notes from all over the world.
Some big dogs are just saying, "screw it, we'll do it live," and firing up their own mini-streamers. The Try Guys have the right idea - not trying to out-Netflix Netflix, just super-serving their niche. Respect.
Here's a head-scratcher: 68% of folks say they want fresh, original stories, but 73% of their actual eyeball time is going to the same old, same old. Social media's even weirder - 82% of the loudest "we want new stuff!" shouting is coming from people who never actually watch it. Go figure.
But hey, never underestimate the power of a ride-or-die fanbase. They're behind 89% of the non-franchise renewals out there. The #RenewShadowAndBone crew got it done, even with so-so numbers overall.
The algorithm is low-key running the show more than we'd like to admit. 58% of viewers watch whatever it throws up, so we're stuck in a self-fulfilling loop of same-same content.
Fantasy adaptations are learning to dream smaller. It's not about the seven-season mega-epic now. It's tidy little limited runs testing the waters. Amazon's playing it smart with Wheel of Time - each chunk adapting a book rather than one big story. Even the Game of Thrones universe is taking baby steps now. That Dunk & Egg show took 28% less upfront investment than House of the Dragon.
Animation is sneaky slaying. That Devil May Cry series got movie-level bang for 19% fewer bucks. You can do a lot when you're not blowing the budget on CGI dragons. Anime numbers are just bonkers - 14.8% growth locked in 'til 2030. The weebs are eating it up - 38% of new sign-ups are just for the Isekai stuff.
Those niche streamers have the secret sauce for keeping folks hooked. Simuldubs, community merch stores, the whole shebang. It's not just about the shows. It's the whole dang ecosystem.
Even Netflix is getting in on the ad game now. That new $6.99 tier is flipping the script. Fantasy lovers are a captive audience - 89% of 'em actually sit through the ads, vs 67% for everything else. Ka-ching.
Anime's teaching everyone a thing or two about playing nice internationally, too. U.S. market's worth a sweet $2.21B now. But you gotta tread carefully - 68% of diehards will kick off if you mess with the source material too much.
The big writer/actor strikes are still being felt behind the scenes. This new 'engagement hours' deal could juice lead actor pay by 22% on a hit, but it's an 18% haircut on the upfront dough. VFX teams are feeling the pinch. Over a third of The Sandman S2 budget went their way, but the backend-heavy setup is rough on the support crew.
Global production musical chairs is the new hustle. Shadow & Bone played it like a pro, stitching Hungary, the UK, and the US together to slash that budget by a tidy 28%. Course, more cooks, more problems - 74% of showrunners are drowning in 'notes' from all over.
AI is sticking its silicon nose everywhere. Punching up scripts, generating crappy concept art…it's knocked a third off fantasy development times since 2023. Netflix has this whole 'Witcher' AI that trawls the books to keep stuff on track. 62% fewer continuity screw-ups, but the fans can tell. 41% called BS on the samey-looking monsters this year.
Anime's not just a niche darling now. It's a global juggernaut. U.S. slice of the pie's set to hit $5B+ by 2030. Everyone's scrambling to crack the cross-cultural code. Chinese book, Western structure - that Three-Body Problem mashup nailed it with 73% 'universal appeal.’
Africa's on fire, fantasy-wise. 32% spike, year on year. Blood Psalms tapped that pan-African mythos and snagged 18 MILLION global eyeballs. Now the pressure's on for Western folks to step out of Middle Earth's shadow. This is the first year homecooked fantasy's been outnumbered by fresh folklore.
So yeah, it's a wild west out there. Everyone's trying to thread the needle between playing it safe and taking a big swing. But if there's one thing I know, the real magic happens when you're not afraid to color outside the lines a little. Or a lot.
The next big thing's not gonna come from an algorithm. It's gonna take guts, heart, and maybe a little bit of crazy. But hey, that's showbiz, baby.
